The latest Cool Thing sweeping the net is this mapping website that shows domestic county-to-county migration patterns during 2008. That is, it shows you where people in the US moved to and from that year.

Click on any county in the United States and the map will display lines indicating where residents of that county moved to or from. Black lines indicate net inward movement (people moving into the county), red lines net outward movement (people moving out of it).

Some interesting results are below.

The District of Columbia:

A lot more black than red is good news; it means more people are moving in than out. Geographically the ins and outs are fairly evenly distributed, although it’s clear enough that more people are coming from the north and leaving for the south and west.

DC area suburbs:
From left to right, Montgomery County, Prince William County, Arlington County.

Interesting that from the perspective of black-to-red ratio, inner suburb Arlington is doing a whole lot better than outer suburb Prince William, with relatively comparable numbers of movements. Montgomery’s map is denser with both red and black, it being such a larger jurisdiction, but it is clear that even wealthy MoCo isn’t doing as well as the District.

Other cities:
From left to right, Los Angeles, Houston, and Cumberland, MD.

Except for a solid influx from the northeast, LA is bleeding just about everywhere; is it time to start calling what’s going on the California diaspora? The map for Houston on the other hand is a mirror-image, covered in oily black. Smaller cities and rural areas obviously have less movement of both sorts, but isn’t it interesting that long-suffering Cumberland has as much black as red, and that its population gains are coming from the very suburban areas that were responsible for draining it in past decades?

This is yet more proof that the 20th Century model of municipal winners and losers is becoming increasingly obsolete. The south still grows at the north’s expense, but California isn’t paradise any longer. Meanwhile, central cities and an increasing number of small towns are more than holding their own against sprawl.

There are no two ways about it: The 21st Century is going to be different than the 20th.

Cross-posted at Greater Greater Washington.

A modified version of this post appeared on the Washington Post Local Blogging Network.

With all the talk about the Silver and Purple lines, streetcars, and all the other exciting transit projects in the works around DC, it’s clear that we are in the midst of a major infrastructure investment. As I explain in today’s post at the Washington Post Local Blogging Network, that trend extends to the Mid-Atlantic region and all across America, with major new transit investments under way in cities such as Phoenix, Honolulu and Houston.

Some critics of President Obama suggest that he hasn’t delivered the change on which his campaign ran. In some ways, that could be true. On the topic of transportation, however, his administration has been nothing short of transformative. The culture change at USDOT is significant. When the Republican Secretary of Transportation is saying things like this, the fact that there has been a shift cannot seriously be denied.

If only Congress would get on board, we could take the next step and codify multi-modalism into a genuinely progressive transportation bill.

Bike-sharing locations in downtown Denver. Click map for larger pdf.

SmartBike DC is the only operating bike-sharing system in the United States, but it won’t be much longer. Earlier this week Denver B-Cycle officially began accepting memberships, in anticipation of opening for business in late April. When it does open, Denver B-Cycle will be about five times larger than SmartBike DC: 500 bikes at 50 stations compared to 120 bikes at 10 stations. It will be, by far, the United States’ largest bike-sharing operation to date.

But 2010 is going to be a big year.

At some point this year:

• Nice Ride Minnesota will open in Minneapolis with 80 stations and 1,000 bikes.
• Boston will launch a system with 290 stations and 2,500 bikes
• DC and Arlington will, presumably, dramatically expand bike-sharing in the Washington region.

It’s too bad we locals won’t be setting the pace anymore, but this is really, really exciting stuff. Compared to the huge capital costs of road and transit projects, bike-sharing moves people practically for free, and no matter how many windshield perspective journalists say otherwise, lots of people will use it.

Keep your eyes open for news from DC and Arlington in the coming weeks/months. They’ve been negotiating how to move forward, and will hopefully be making an announcement soon.

Mary Peters, Bush administration Secretary of Transportation, in an August, 2007 TV interview:

“You know, I think Americans would be shocked to learn that only about 60 percent of the gas tax money that they pay today actually goes into highway and bridge construction… bike paths, trails, repairing lighthouses. Those are some of the kind of things that that money is being spent on, as opposed to our infrastructure… there’s about probably some 10 percent to 20 percent of the current spending that is going to projects that really are not transportation, directly transportation-related. Some of that money is being spent on things, as I said earlier, like bike paths or trails.”

Ray LaHood, Obama administration Secretary of Transportation, yesterday on the the USDOT blog:

“On Earth Day, it seems appropriate to talk about bicycling, not only as recreation, but as an environmentally sound commuting option… When I told the League of American Bicyclists National Bike Summit that “Cyclists are important users of America’s transportation systems,” I meant it. And, when I wrote that “With DOT, bicyclists have a full partner in working toward livable communities,” I meant that as well. President Obama has challenged us to transform the way transportation serves the American people by creating more choices and encouraging less carbon-intensive transportation, and we are working hard on that challenge… Earth Day is today, but we’ll need the sustained engagement of bicycle commuters and their advocates in the weeks and months to come to help keep the wheels of bicycle-friendly legislation on the road.”

There is still a lot of institutional bias towards cars and against alternatives like transit and cycling, but it’s only a matter of time until those biases are torn down (the upcoming federal surface transportation legislation could be a major turning point), and there is no better ally than a DOT boss who understands that the words “transportation” and “infrastructure” are not mere synonyms for “highways”.

For the record, lest I be accused of partisanship, Peters was a career DOT bureaucrat while LaHood is a former Republican Congressman.

Despite the fact that Washington, DC grew larger by population and became wealthier between the summers of 2005 and 2008, a Transportation Planning Board report shows that the number of cars registered in the city declined by almost 6%.

Anybody out there still think adding highway capacity solves congestion? When driving is the only option, people drive a whole lot. When transit, cycling and car-sharing are easy, there are fewer cars on the road! Not only do the people who transit, cycle or car-share benefit by virtue of bypassing road congestion altogether for most of theirs trips, those people who continue to drive benefit because… say it with me now… there are fewer cars on the road!

Things can and are changing, America. Don’t let nutjobs like O’Toole convince you otherwise.

High speed rail in Taiwan

Citing the famous Daniel Burnham quote to “make no small plans”, President Obama today pushed for high speed rail investments around the country. The highlights:

• The United States is far behind other countries in the developed world in regards to passenger rail.
• Better trains improve national security and the environment by fostering energy independence.
• A new rail network will create jobs in both the short and long term, and improve the economic situation of cities served.
• In addition to the $8 billion included for high-speed rail in the stimulus, there is a further $5 billion proposed for the regular national budget.

If America is to remain competitive in a globalized world of expensive oil, we need this kind of long term investment in modern infrastructure. The President’s dedication to rail (to the tune of $13 billion so far) is really, really fabulous news.

Read:

Among those who say U.S. consumption of gasoline has peaked are executives at the world’s biggest publicly traded oil company, Exxon Mobil Corp

Since Henry Ford began mass production of the Model T nearly a century ago, car-loving Americans have gulped ever-increasing volumes of gasoline. A growing number of industry players believe that era is over.

Among those who say U.S. consumption of gasoline has peaked are executives at the world’s biggest publicly traded oil company, Exxon Mobil Corp., as well as many private analysts and government energy forecasters.

The reasons include changes in the way Americans live and the transportation they choose, along with a growing emphasis on alternative fuels. The result could be profound transformations not only for the companies that refine gasoline from crude oil but also for state and federal budgets and for consumers. Much of contemporary America, from the design of its cities to its tax code and its foreign policy, is predicated on a growing thirst for gasoline.

…

Demand for all petroleum-based transportation fuels — gasoline, diesel and jet fuel — fell 7.1% last year, according to the EIA. This is the steepest one-year decline since at least 1950, as far back as the federal government has reliable data.

Many industry observers have become convinced the drop in consumption won’t reverse even when economic growth resumes. In December, the EIA said gasoline consumption by U.S. drivers had peaked, in part because of growing consumer interest in fuel efficiency.

Exxon believes U.S. fuel demand to keep cars, SUVs and pickups moving will shrink 22% between now and 2030. “We are probably at or very near a peak in terms of light-duty gasoline demand,” says Scott Nauman, Exxon’s head of energy forecasting.

…

Americans are changing, too. Demographic shifts that once spurred higher gasoline consumption have run their course, such as more women joining the work force and the flight to the suburbs.

More people are minimizing their commutes by living closer to their jobs. Inner cities and surrounding suburbs are growing denser, shortening trips to work and to the mall. Between the early 1990s and 2007, the majority of metropolitan areas in the U.S. saw an increase in the share of residential permits granted near or in their downtown centers, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

…

A growing number of Americans are commuting by bus or train or working from home. And even as the population continues to rise, the rate of gasoline consumption appears to be slowing. From 1960 to 1970, the U.S. population grew 13% while vehicle miles rose 54% and gasoline demand 45%, according to government data. Between 1990 and 2000, the population grew at the same 13% rate, but miles driven rose only 28% and gasoline demand by 17%.

All that according to the Wall Street Journal, hardly a liberal or green-leaning source.

If even the likes of the WSJ and executives from Exxon-freaking-Mobil are saying these things, isn’t it time the Wendell Coxes and Randall O’Tooles of the world stopped pedaling their nonsense wares?

Coming soon all over Virginia: More of the bottom one.

One of the keystone rules of good urbanism is that interconnected streets are better than disconnected ones. Traditional blocks connected by a grid (or something like a grid) reduce congestion and improve safety by eliminating the bottlenecks inherent in the arterial-collector street system, which funnels all traffic in a given area onto just one or two roads. With a grid, you get options. The transportation eggs aren’t all in one basket.

Good on Virginia then for adopting new regulations requiring future subdivisions to include through streets linking them directly with other neighborhoods nearby. This is a relatively minor modification to long-standing VDOT regulations for new streets, but over time it’s going to make a huge difference to how development in Virginia works. It’s a bona fide statement by the government of the Commonwealth that the old arterial-collector system doesn’t work, and it’s time to move on.

Great news.

Update 3/26/09: Greater Greater Washington outlines the specifics of the new regulations.

This file is getting long. Today’s entry is that according to the latest county-level US Census data, the long migration from central city to outer suburbs is reversing. For decades DC has gotten smaller each year, the inner suburbs have grown very slowly, and the outer suburbs have boomed. That isn’t what’s happening now.

Growth Between July 2007 and July 2008, ranked by rate:
Loudoun up 13,000 (4.6%) to 290,000
Arlington up 6,000 (3%) to 210,000
Alexandria up 4,000 (2.9%) to 144,000
Prince William up 5,000 (1.4%) to 366,000
Fairfax up 11,000 (1.1%) to 1,015,000
Montgomery up 9,000 (1%) to 951,000
Howard up 2,000 (0.9%) to 275,000
DC up 4,000 (0.7%) to 592,000
Frederick up 1,500 (0.7%) to 226,000
Anne Arundel up 2,000 (0.4%) to 513,000
Charles up 600 (0.4%) to 141,000
Prince George’s down 4,500 (-0.5%) to 821,000

Two of the region’s three fastest-growing jurisdictions are located completely inside the Beltway, and the District of Columbia is now growing at the same rate or faster than four of the six counties in suburban Maryland. As recently as two or three years ago, such data would have been absolutely unthinkable.

Nationally the trend is visible is some cities, but not all. I looked up three other large American central cities that double as counties (Denver, San Francisco, Baltimore) and found uneven results. Denver is growing faster than all but one of its suburbs, San Francisco ranks near the middle of Bay Area counties, and poor Baltimore is still shrinking. But even if this cities-growing-faster-than-suburbs thing isn’t being seen completely across the board, it does at least seem fair to say that the playing field of city to suburb growth is rapidly leveling.

Avent has more.

Update: Here’s another interesting way of looking at our region: The combined population total of the three central jurisdictions (DC, ArCo, Alexandria) is now 945,687, up a total of 14,062 from 2007 (1.5%). The combined population total of the three Beltway jurisdictions (Fairfax, Montgomery, PG) is now 2,786,834, up a total of 15,874 from 2007 (0.6%). Even without PG to drag them down, Fairfax and Montgomery combined are barely growing at 1%. At this point, the core is definitely outperforming the Beltway by a sizable margin.