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Predictions for 2040

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Despite what the producers of Minority Report predicted, there will probably not be vertical highways in Rosslyn. Also, Georgetown will not be located in Petworth.

Someone recently asked me what I think the DC region will be like in 2040. This was my answer:

Population:
DC’s regional Council Of Governments, which has historically been very accurate, predicts that the COG area will grow from 5.4 million in 2010 to 6.6 million in 2030. If trends continue, that would extrapolate to 7.2 million in 2040.

For the geographically larger Washington/Baltimore Combined Statistical Area that is estimated at 8.2 million in 2007, a 2040 population of between 10-11 million seems reasonable based on current trends (almost all of the growth happening in/around DC). If there is a substantial nation-wide migration away from the sunbelt and back to the older cities, which if not exactly likely is at least not entirely out of the question, Baltimore will grow much faster for an expected CSA population of perhaps 12-13 million.

Transportation:
Transit:
The Metrorail Silver line to Dulles Airport will be complete, and there will probably be one additional subway tunnel in the central city, most likely a separated new Blue line running through Georgetown and the northern part of downtown Washington. There will be a regional network of streetcars and BRT on most of the large arterial corridors. MARC and VRE will have merged and will operate more like Chicago’s Metra or NY’s LIRR, rather than as simple commuter operations. The Purple Line won’t yet be a complete ring, but it will cross the Potomac and reach Tysons Corner. Baltimore will not have any additional third rail lines, but will have a number of new light rail and BRT lines, some of which will be in subways. Streetcars will once again roll in smaller satellite cities such as Frederick, Hagerstown and Annapolis.

Roads:
All current HOV facilities and many other highways will be tolled. Most of the central city highways in DC will be either removed or decked over with air rights development. The ICC will be finished and the Fairfax County Parkway and US Route 301 will be upgraded to almost Interstate standards, resulting in a partial outer beltway that does not connect between the ICC and Virginia.

Ferries:
Water taxies will operate on the Potomac, mostly for short trips across the river inside the Beltway. There may be a few longer distance ferries for commuters from the south, but not very many.

Intercity Travel:
Union Station will be past capacity and we will need a second depot, possibly in Arlington. There will be multiple trains per day running several short-distance intercity rail trips to all other population centers in the mid-Atlantic region. Camden Station will become more important in Baltimore. Dulles and BWI airports will continue to expand. National Airport may be sold and the land redeveloped, or it may continue to operate, depending on how much intercity travel continues to be done by plane.

Land Use:
Sprawl:
There will be more sprawl up the I-270 corridor, in eastern Montgomery County, and in eastern Loudoun County, but the total amount of new land given over to sprawl will not be very much. Baltimore and DC will not feel particularly more connected by sprawl than they do already.

Infill:
Most of the Potomac and Anacostia River waterfront areas will be redeveloped, resulting in a much more river-oriented city than has ever existed in the past. The downtown height limit will remain, but it may be lifted outside the L’Enfant City. All major suburban arterial commercial corridors will experience significant urban redevelopment, resulting in a large number of narrow high-density urban corridors surrounded by low density single family homes from the 20th century. Tysons Corner will be a string-of-pearls TOD in the same way that Ornjington is today, as will be large parts of Gaithersburg, Rockville, and Fairfax.

July 13th, 2009 | Permalink
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