Go to Greater Greater Washington and sign the petition urging the Montgomery County Council not to support another round of ineffective and expensive widenings of I-270.

There seems to be some outrage that a supposedly “affordable” housing project in Fairfax County includes in its mix of units housing for families making between $50, 000-$100, 000 per year. Famously conservative County Supervisor Pat Herrity calls the plan “government run amok.”

With the caveat that I know absolutely nothing about this proposal except for what it says in that article, I have to say that the outrage is probably misguided. The whole concept of building entire neighborhoods for a single narrow income group is outdated. The government built plenty of low-income only “project housing” back in the 20th Century, with awful results. When you take a bunch of poor people and cosntraint them to living in places exclusively for poor people, the result is a ghetto with an often crime-ridden and permanently stratified population. Hardly desirable goals for taxpayer subsidy. Current thinking on the subject suggests that mixing incomes produces all sorts of nice effects, not the least important of which is that neighbors value their neighborhood as something other than a government handout to be used and then destroyed. If you can make your affordable housing seem like normal housing, that’s generally good for the city (or county) and for the people living there.

So while I sympathize with the knee-jerk reaction to oppose government help for families earning close to $100, 000 per year, it is probably legitimately good policy to do so. Having those folks mixed in with those earning less than $50, 000 a year will make the neighborhood better.

PS: Lest I be accused to equating “rich” with “better”, the concept of mixed income neighborhoods is equally true on the other side of the spectrum. Neighborhoods that are exclusively for the wealthy are also undesirable for the city. The best neighborhoods are those open to everyone, in which the same person can live as they go from student to wage-earner to high-roller, and from single to partnered to having a family.

Despite what the producers of Minority Report predicted, there will probably not be vertical highways in Rosslyn. Also, Georgetown will not be located in Petworth.

Someone recently asked me what I think the DC region will be like in 2040. This was my answer:

Population:
DC’s regional Council Of Governments, which has historically been very accurate, predicts that the COG area will grow from 5.4 million in 2010 to 6.6 million in 2030. If trends continue, that would extrapolate to 7.2 million in 2040.

For the geographically larger Washington/Baltimore Combined Statistical Area that is estimated at 8.2 million in 2007, a 2040 population of between 10-11 million seems reasonable based on current trends (almost all of the growth happening in/around DC). If there is a substantial nation-wide migration away from the sunbelt and back to the older cities, which if not exactly likely is at least not entirely out of the question, Baltimore will grow much faster for an expected CSA population of perhaps 12-13 million.

Transportation:
Transit:
The Metrorail Silver line to Dulles Airport will be complete, and there will probably be one additional subway tunnel in the central city, most likely a separated new Blue line running through Georgetown and the northern part of downtown Washington. There will be a regional network of streetcars and BRT on most of the large arterial corridors. MARC and VRE will have merged and will operate more like Chicago’s Metra or NY’s LIRR, rather than as simple commuter operations. The Purple Line won’t yet be a complete ring, but it will cross the Potomac and reach Tysons Corner. Baltimore will not have any additional third rail lines, but will have a number of new light rail and BRT lines, some of which will be in subways. Streetcars will once again roll in smaller satellite cities such as Frederick, Hagerstown and Annapolis.

Roads:
All current HOV facilities and many other highways will be tolled. Most of the central city highways in DC will be either removed or decked over with air rights development. The ICC will be finished and the Fairfax County Parkway and US Route 301 will be upgraded to almost Interstate standards, resulting in a partial outer beltway that does not connect between the ICC and Virginia.

Ferries:
Water taxies will operate on the Potomac, mostly for short trips across the river inside the Beltway. There may be a few longer distance ferries for commuters from the south, but not very many.

Intercity Travel:
Union Station will be past capacity and we will need a second depot, possibly in Arlington. There will be multiple trains per day running several short-distance intercity rail trips to all other population centers in the mid-Atlantic region. Camden Station will become more important in Baltimore. Dulles and BWI airports will continue to expand. National Airport may be sold and the land redeveloped, or it may continue to operate, depending on how much intercity travel continues to be done by plane.

Land Use:
Sprawl:
There will be more sprawl up the I-270 corridor, in eastern Montgomery County, and in eastern Loudoun County, but the total amount of new land given over to sprawl will not be very much. Baltimore and DC will not feel particularly more connected by sprawl than they do already.

Infill:
Most of the Potomac and Anacostia River waterfront areas will be redeveloped, resulting in a much more river-oriented city than has ever existed in the past. The downtown height limit will remain, but it may be lifted outside the L’Enfant City. All major suburban arterial commercial corridors will experience significant urban redevelopment, resulting in a large number of narrow high-density urban corridors surrounded by low density single family homes from the 20th century. Tysons Corner will be a string-of-pearls TOD in the same way that Ornjington is today, as will be large parts of Gaithersburg, Rockville, and Fairfax.

Still working on refining this concept. Starting this week I’ll highlight a single tweet either from @BeyondDC or someone I follow.

This week’s top tweet:
@planetizen Giving away free parking is like giving away free gas: http://bit.ly/12nJeH

PS: I really do intend this to be a Friday thing. It just hasn’t worked out that way the last couple of weeks.

From today’s Express, citing the latest TTI urban mobility study (red edits by BeyondDC):

Oh hai, induced demand.

There is a thought process in land use planning that says moving jobs to the suburbs is a good idea, because a lot of people live in the suburbs and if they work there as well then they don’t have to drive as far to get to work. It’s a fairly intuitive idea, and one that many planners and community activists subscribe to.

Except it doesn’t work that way at all.

Not even close.

In actuality, people tend to live 15-45 minutes away from their job, regardless of where their job happens to be. The result is that people who work downtown tend to look for housing close to the core, while those who work far out in the suburbs look for housing far out in the suburbs. Of course there are some outliers. There will always be people who want to live in the city no matter what, or who commute in from Pennsylvania, but for the vast majority of people, this is how it works.

Take a look at these two maps, produced by MWCOG and initially published in the blogosphere at Greater Greater Washington:

Origin of commuting trips to downtown Washington (federal jobs only, but the private-sector map looks the same). The vast majority of commuters live inside the Beltway, and very few come from beyond Fairfax County.

Origin of commuting trips to Tysons Corner. Thousands come from Reston, Herndon and points west.

Think those downtown workers are the ones clogging I-66 and I-95? Not likely. The situation could not be more clear: If you want to foster Smart Growth and multi-modalism, put your jobs in the city. If you want to foster sprawl and congestion, put them far away. End of story.

PS: GGW has more maps for other job centers. The map for commuters to Ornjington (yeah, I’m sticking with it) is somewhere in-between, while the map for Reston/Herndon trends even more to the far-away western suburbs than does the Tysons map.

Approximate location of Terrapin Run (green arrow).

Ever heard of Terrapin Run? It’s the dumbest proposed development in Maryland, and maybe the dumbest on the east coast. The developer is proposing a giant new commuter subdivision of 4, 300 homes in Allegany County mid-way between Cumberland and Hancock. Yes, the same Cumberland that’s home to 20, 000 fewer people than it was in 1940 and has plenty of room to grow responsibly, and the same Allegany County that’s a good 100 miles from Washington or Baltimore, to where Terrapin Run’s residents would presumably commute.

Turns out Terrapin Run is ground zero in the ongoing battle of Smart Growth in Maryland. Near as BeyondDC can tell, the fight has gone something like this:
– Maryland adopts Smart Growth legislation requiring development to “conform” with local land-use plans.
– Allegany County adopts a growth plan that does not include development near Terrapin Run.
– Developer proposes Terrapin Run.
– Allegany County approves Terrapin Run despite it not being in the plan.
– Opponent groups sue to stop the development.
– Maryland’s court system rules that “conform” is meaningless and the County can do what it wants.
– Maryland’s legislature passes a new law strengthening conformity restrictions, effectively overturning the Court decision.
– MD’s Department of the Environment rejects a request by Terrapin Run to be included in the state’s water and sewer plan, effectively rejecting the development.
– Terrapin Run sues Maryland (the most recent twist, which has yet to be played out in court).

Terrapin Run is an awful proposal. It will harm the environment, drive up for everyone carbon emissions, congestion and the price of gas, and will sap economic demand from existing underpopulated communities like Cumberland. It is exactly the type of parasitic sprawl the state has spent the last 20 years trying to stop. Good on Maryland for, in the words of Secretary of Planning Richard Hall, “sticking to (the state’s) guns on this.” If we don’t stick to them for this one, when would we?

Usually the twitter summary comes out on Friday, but I had a busy weekend.

From BeyondDC: @beyonddc Driving a car into Manhattan costs $160. Why aren’t “libertarians” like Cox and O’Toole calling for a $160/car entry fee? http://is.gd/1oNm8 @beyonddc The top of mount pleasant is an underappreciated urban room. Appreciating it now from the balcony of the apartment from “state of play” @beyonddc DC area bikesharing could soon get the big boost it needs to go big time (maybe). Keep eyes peeled in coming weeks for potentially cool news @beyonddc For the record: DC’s rowhouse vernacular is seriously awesome. No other American city has prettier residential neighborhoods. @beyonddc Should have developed Gtown waterfront and turned Whurst into park.

From Others: @theoverheadwire You’re not an Enviro if you’re also a NIMBY. http://tinyurl.com/mnmzru @Infrastructurst US manufactures a streetcar for the first time in nearly 60 years. Beginning of new domestic industry? http://bit.ly/8eMUg @TheCityFix I understood Northern Virginia once I realized it was just California: http://bit.ly/yZTwP @drgridlock Let’s help Metro: Write your own announcement to explain where trains are stopping. http://tr.im/qkC5 @bogrosemary NextBus is live – hopefully permanently this time: http://wmata.nextbus.com/ (same URL for mobile site).

Here is another way to look at the census population estimates I posted yesterday. Out of the 273 cities in the United States with a population over 100, 000, Arlington and Alexandria were the 18th and 20th fastest-growing between 2007 and 2008. That’s pretty darn impressive, considering they’re both land-locked core jurisdictions with no way to grow except infill. Washington itself, for the record, ranks as the 160th fastest growing city. That’s not quite the top half, but it’s a long, long way from the bottom.

National rankings aren’t available for all incorporated cities (only those over 100, 000), so we can’t rank growth in the likes of Gaithersburg and Rockville on a national level, but we can get an update on the always-exciting race to be Maryland’s second largest city from the state list. Baltimore is far and away Maryland’s largest incorporated city, but after that it gets dicey, with three cities in close proximity to each other vying for second place. In recent years all of them have ranked as high as second, but what about this year? Gaithersburg is 4th at 58, 744, Frederick is third at 59, 213, and Rockville is second at 60, 734 – having become just this year only the second Maryland city to break the 60, 000 mark. Fifth place Bowie is relatively distant from the pack with 52, 544, but still far ahead of numbers six and seven Hagerstown and Annapolis, which have only 39, 728 and 36, 524, respectively.

Image from Design Line.

Not to be outdone by DC’s new central city buses, Baltimore will soon launch a circulator service of its own. Yesterday Baltimore Mayor Shelia Dixon unveiled the hybrid electric buses shown at right, which will soon begin running on three routes: Federal Hill to Penn Station, Poppleton to Little Italy, and Jonestown to Johns Hopkins Hospital via Fells Point.

Like their DC cousins, the Charm City Circulator will arrive every 10 minutes, is a unique brand apart from normal city buses, and connects to all the other transit modes in the city (in Baltimore’s case including subway, light rail, MARC, and water taxi). Unlike their DC cousins, the Baltimore service will be completely free to ride. The service is slated to start sometime in “late summer”.